MUMBAI — Indian benchmark indices are poised for a cautiously optimistic open on Thursday, October 23, the first full trading session of Samvat 2082, buoyed by buzz around a potential India-U.S. trade deal and resilient domestic sentiment, even as global cues remain mixed.
The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher at 25,868.60 during Wednesday’s Muhurat trading session, up 25.45 points or 0.10%, while the Sensex settled at 84,426.34, gaining 62.97 points or 0.07%. Bank Nifty edged lower by 0.04% to 58,007.20 after testing multi-month highs. GIFT Nifty futures, signaling pre-market sentiment, traded flat to slightly lower around 26,282—down 0.02%—but earlier indications pointed to a potential gap-up of up to 330 points, reflecting optimism from reports of a favorable bilateral trade agreement by month-end.
The session kicks off against a backdrop of steady inflows and sectoral rotation. IT and banking stocks led gains in the abbreviated Muhurat trade, with auto and pharma adding support. However, U.S. markets closed mixed overnight—Dow down 0.71% amid tech volatility—while Asian peers like Nikkei and Hang Seng showed early resilience. Domestically, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought ₹1,200 crore on Tuesday, extending their buying streak, per NSE data.
Analysts anticipate the Nifty to test the psychologically significant 26,000 level, with a decisive breakout potentially unlocking upside toward 26,200-26,300. “The index is forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, with strong put bases at 25,600-25,700 providing downside cushion,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities. “Call writing at 26,000-26,200 suggests resistance, but positive trade deal news could catalyze a breach, targeting fresh all-time highs.”
For Bank Nifty, which hit an intraday peak of 58,261.55 on Monday, immediate hurdles loom at 58,252 (R1). A sustained move above could eye 58,650, driven by robust loan growth and earnings beats from lenders like ICICI Bank. Supports cluster at 57,400 (S1), 57,083 (S2), and 56,705 (S3). “Banking remains the market’s engine, but overbought RSI readings near 70 warrant caution on pullbacks,” Chouhan added.
The Sensex, mirroring Nifty’s trajectory, could gap up above key Gann levels around 84,500, paving the way to 84,948 or even all-time highs near 85,000 if momentum holds. Broader supports at 83,017 and 82,562 offer breathing room. Volatility, as measured by India VIX, eased 2% to 13.45, signaling tempered fears.
| Index | Previous Close | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Expected Range (Oct 23) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,868.60 | 25,700 / 25,600 | 26,000 / 26,200 | 25,800 – 26,100 |
| Sensex | 84,426.34 | 84,000 / 83,017 | 84,500 / 84,948 | 84,300 – 84,800 |
| Bank Nifty | 58,007.20 | 57,400 / 57,083 | 58,252 / 58,650 | 57,900 – 58,300 |
(Source: NSE, Moneycontrol; levels as of 9:00 IST Oct 23)
Key events to watch include U.S. flash PMIs and jobless claims data, alongside domestic Q2 GDP previews. Sectors like metals and IT may see rotation if trade talks progress, while FMCG could lag on weak monsoons.
In conclusion, Thursday’s setup favors bulls if 26,000 holds firm, but traders should monitor global escalations in U.S. elections or Middle East tensions. Long-term, India’s growth trajectory—projected at 6.8% for FY26—underpins the rally. Position sizing remains key: Buy dips above supports for intraday plays, with stops below 25,600 for Nifty.
As the bell rings at 9:15 a.m. IST, Samvat 2082 heralds potential prosperity—will the indices deliver?
